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define('DISALLOW_FILE_EDIT', true); define('DISALLOW_FILE_MODS', true); Über Trading und Wahrscheinlichkeiten
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2

Über Trading und Wahrscheinlichkeiten


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Bei der Diskussion über die verschiedenen Arten der Aktienanalysen und deren Tauglichkeit gehen die Meinungen oft weit auseinander. Basierend auf einem Artikel von daytradingteam.de möchte ich auf die umstrittene Chartanalyse, auch technische Analyse genannt, genauer eingehen.

Investitionen in Wertpapiere sind meist eine sichere Angelegenheit, sofern man geduldig ist und sie jahrelang ruhen lässt. Wählt man ein Zeitfenster von 5-10 Jahren, so fällt auf, das die meisten Unternehmen über diese lange Zeit trotz Krisen hohe Renditen eingefahren haben.

Wie sieht es aber aus, wenn das Zeitfenster der “Investition” extrem verkürzt wird (man spricht dann von Trading) ? Beispielsweise auf Monate, Wochen, Tage oder sogar wenige Sekunden? Es macht wenig Sinn, hier über die Marktkapitalisierung, das Kursgewinnverhältnis oder die Eigenkapitalgröße zu diskutieren, da diese Begriffe nur langfristig von Bedeutung sind.

Die Zukunft vorhersagen?

Die Zukunft vorraussagen kann bekanntlich niemand. Allerdings gibt es bestimmte Muster, Formationen und Signale, die auf eine gewisse Kursentwicklung deuten könnten. Ein Beispiel wäre die Vierecksformation der K+S Aktie, über die wir hier diskutiert haben. Man geht hier davon aus, das der Kurs stark steigen bzw. fallen wird, wenn der obere Widerstand bzw. die untere Ünterstüztung durchbrochen wird (unteres Bild der Abbildung).

Nun werden einige jedoch korrekter Weise einwenden, dass eine Formation oder ein Signal niemals ein 100%iger Garant für die angedeutete Kursentwicklung sein kann. So etwas wie “Sicherheit” oder “Gewissheit” gibt es bei der Börse allerdings nicht. Aber die jahrelange Beobachtung von solchen Formationen zeigt, das es zumindest wahrscheinlicher ist, dass der erwartete Trend (wie oben genannt) einsetzt.

Traden mit Wahrscheinlichkeiten!

Aber 100% Sicherheit sind nicht unbedingt nötig, um dennoch in der Mehrheit der Fälle Gewinn zu erwirtschaften. Gehen wir davon aus, dass die Prognose der oben genannten Vierecksformation in nur ca. 3 von 5 Fällen eintrifft. Das entspricht 60% der Fälle. Dieser Prozentwert wird auch Erwartungswert genannt. In 3 von 5 Fällen bricht der Kurs also tatsächlich nach oben aus, wenn der obere Widerstand durchbrochen wird. In 2 von 5 Fällen jedoch wird die obere Grenze zwar durchbrochen, der Kurs fällt aber unerwarteterweise wieder ins Viereck zurück.

60% bedeutet – anders ausgedrückt – das man öfters gewinnt als verliert. Nehmen wir einen klassischen Münzwurf als Beispiel. Hier beträgt der Erwartungswert 50%. Es besteht ein Verhältnis Gewinn zu Verlust von 1 zu 1. Würde ich also unendlich oft die Münze werfen und mit meinem Gegner ausmachen, bei Kopf einen Euro zu zahlen, bei Zahl jedoch einen Euro zu gewinnen, so würden Beide am Ende weder Verlust, noch Gewinn machen. Der Erwartungswert sagt nämlich voraus, das beide Szenarien gleich wahrscheinlich sind, also gleich oft eintreten!

Zurück zum Beispiel der K+S Aktie: Wie bereits erwähnt “gewinnen” wir hier in 60% der Fälle (nur eine Annahme). Es ist also wahrscheinlicher, das wir gewinnen, als das wir verlieren! Somit bietet sich doch also an, die Aktie zu traden?

Umsetzung: Wir beobachten den Wert so lange, bis beispielsweise der obere Widerstand durchbrochen wird. Zu diesem Zeitpunkt steigen wir sofort ein, da wir erwarten, dass der Kurs nun weiter steigt! Zu 60% liegen wir ja mit der Vermutung richtig. Sollten der Trend jedoch widererwarten nicht eintreten – was in 40% der Fälle passiert – werden wir Geld verlieren. Dies können wir aber durch einen Stopp-Loss kurz unter dem Widerstand absichern, denn spätestens dann wird klar, dass unsere Tradingidee doch nicht aufgeht. Und genau hier beginnt das große und wichtige Thema Risikomanagement.

Wenn man es genau nimmt, basiert kurzfristiges Trading also nicht auf einer Aktie, Währung oder Index, sondern vielmehr auf den Wahrscheinlichkeiten! Man sucht nach Formationen, die einen positiven Erwartungswert haben, und nutzt diesen aus. So gesehen ist das pure Mathematik, basierend auf chartechnischen Annahmen.


 

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