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Immer wieder taucht die Frage auf: was bedeutet “Chartanalyse” eigentlich? Und wie steht es mit dem Begriff “Technische Analyse”? Und wo ist hier der Unterschied? Auch wenn die Begriffe ähnlich klingen, muss man hier etwas differenzieren. Im folgenden Artikel wird auf die Definition der Chartanalyse eingegangen.
Der Begriff Chartanalyse ist verwandt, aber nicht gleichzusetzten mit dem der “technischen Analyse”. Tatsächlich ist es so, dass die Chartanalyse eher ein Teilgebiet der technischen Analyse ist. Die technische Analyse ist also als “Oberbegriff” zu verstehen, da diese auch Methoden der Marktanalyse wie z.B. Indikatoren miteinbezieht.
Das Ziel der Chartanalyse
Grundsätzlich versucht die Chartanalyse wie andere Analysemethoden, Aktienkurse zumindest grob zu prognostizieren, sodass der Marktteilnehmer einen kleinen Vorteil hat. Der Hauptunterschied zur Fundamentalanalyse ist jedoch, dass betriebs- oder volkswirtschaftliche Kennzahlen oder Branchenanalysen oder Vergleichbares bei der Chartanalysekomplett ignoriert werden. Man geht bei der Chartanalyse davon aus, dass sämtliche Informationen im Kurs “eingepreist” sind.
Die Chartanalyse bündelt einige Techniken in sich, zu denen wir gleich kommen. Die Gemeinsamkeit besteht in der Grundannahme der Chartanalyse:
“Menschen wiederholen ihr handeln immer wieder.”
Somit ist Untersuchungsgegenstand der Chartanalyse immer die Vergangenheit. Man versucht also konkret gesagt, die zukünftige Kursentwicklung anhand historischer Kursen vorherzusagen – bzw präziser formuliert: die wahrscheinlicheren Kursszenarien zu erkennen, sodass man rein mathematisch gesehen einen kleinen Vorteil hat.
Oft hört man über die Chartanalyse den Vorwurf, das es nur “Kaffeesatzleserei” wäre und die Analysen nicht immer zuverlässig funktionieren. Genau hier liegt ein weit verbreitetes Missverständnis: Denn es ist ausdrücklich nicht das Ziel der Chartanalyse, 100%ig korrekte Vorhersagen zu machen – denn das ist auch gar nicht möglich. Es geht vielmehr um das “jonglieren von Wahrscheinlichekeiten”. Mehr Informationen hierzu findest du in diesem Artikel (Über Trading und Wahrscheinlichkeiten).
Das Grundkonzept der Chartanalyse ist die Dow-Theorie, die besagt, dass Börsenkurse in Trends verlaufen. Anhand dieser Trenddefinitionen können Verkaufs- bzw Kaufsignale generiert werden. Es gibt aber viele weitere Techniken, die in die Analyse miteinfließen. Dann spricht man aber – wenn man ganz genau sein möchte – von der technischen- oder Marktanalyse. Weitere Hilfsmittel sind hier beispielsweise Kursverlaufsmuster, Indikatoren oder Oszillatoren.
Ein bessers Gefühl für den Sinn und die Aussagekraft von Chartanalysen erlangt man am besten, wenn man einige Chartanalysen betrachtet und hinterfragt. Unter Chartanalysen finden Sie auf youngbrokers.net regelmäßig aktuelle charttechnische Analysen.
Weiterführende Artikel zu diesem Thema:
» 16 häufige Chartformationen
» Kostenloses browserbasiertes Programm für Chartanalysen
» Was bedeutet Trading?
» Über Trading und Wahrscheinlichkeiten
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