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define('DISALLOW_FILE_EDIT', true); define('DISALLOW_FILE_MODS', true); Wann beginnt der Sinkflug?
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3

Wann beginnt der Sinkflug?


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Beim heutigen Treffen am 06.05.2009 stand die technische Analyse des DAX auf dem Programm.

Die Frage, die wir uns dabei stellten, ist, wann der DAX seinen rasanten Aufwärtstrend beendet und welche geeigneten Produkte es gibt um an einem Absacken zu profitieren. Um dies besser beurteilen zu können erstellten wir folgende Chartanalyse (zur Vergrößerung klicken):

DAX per 05.06.2009

Wir kamen zu dem Schluss das es nicht mehr lange dauern kann, da sehr viele Indizien dagegen Sprechen:

1. Widerstände:

  • Der langfristige Abwärtstrend seit dem Hoch Anfange 2008 bei über 8000 Punkten ist immer noch in Takt. Der unseres Erachtens sehr starke Widerstand, der aus diesem Trend entsteht liegt bei etwas über 5000 Punkten.
  • Der GDL 200 liegt ebenso auf der Höhe von ca. 5000.
  • Auch die psychologische Schwelle von 5000 darf nicht unterschätzt werden.
  • Austritt aus den Bollinger Bands. Die häufige direkte Folge ist eine Rückkehr verbunden mit einem starken Einbruch.

2. Indikatoren:

  • RSI: Der RSI hat den kritischen Wert von 70 überschritten, was bedeutet das der DAX überkauft ist. Dies deutet darauf hin dass viele Anleger bald aussteigen werden und den DAX somit nach unten drücken werden.
  • MACD: auch dieser Indikator deutet auf einen baldigen Kursverlust des DAX hin.

Geeignete Produkte:

Um an der von uns erwarteten Entwicklung überproportional partizipieren zu können haben wir 2 Produkte gefunden. Zwei verschieden riskante Smart Mini Short Zertifikate die von HSBC emittiert werden.

Es handelt sich um Hebelprodukt, die eine Knockoutschwelle besitzen. Die Knockoutschwelle ist jedoch nur für den Tagesschlusskurs relevant. Dies bedeutet dass das Zertifikat kurzzeitig die Schwelle überschreiten kann ohne dass das Zertifikat sofort wertlos wird.

1. DE000TB198E1

sehr hohe Gewinnchance = sehr hohes Risiko

Hebel: 8,48

Knockout: 5353,13

2. DE000TB158Q9

hohe Gewinnchance = hohes Risiko

Hebel: 3,97

Knockout: 5996,35


 

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3 Kommentare

  1. jan-david sagt:

    Nicht schlecht, der Dax folgt ja fast genau unserer Prognose.
    Die 5000er Marke schafft er nicht!
    Bin jetzt echt gespannt ob es jetzt weiter nach unten geht!

  2. philipp sagt:

    Bin auch richtig gespannt! Man sieht auf dem aktuellen Chart auch, wie es seit einer Woche keine klare Marktmeinung mehr gibt. Gewinn- und Verlusttage wechseln sich ab.

    Hab hier noch ein paar Marktmeinungen zusammengefasst. Hier auch wieder keine tendenzielle Meinung:

    GodemodeTrader.de
    “Viele Marktteilnehmer betrachten die Rallye seit Anfang März anscheinend mit Skepsis und bezweifeln vermutlich die Nachhaltigkeit der sich abzeichnenden konjunkturellen Erholung.”

    Börse-Frankfurt.com
    “Die Optimisten gewinnen Oberwasser. An den Börsen weltweit wächst die Überzeugung, dass das Schlimmste überstanden ist”

    Boerse-Online.de
    “Die Leitindizes haben durch die Bank verloren. Der DAX blieb weiter deutlich unter der 5000er-Marke. Der Minusrekord in der Stahlproduktion trieb die Anleger aus der Stahlbranche.”

    Handesblatt.de
    “Die Meinungen der Börsenexperten gehen auseinander. Während einige jetzt zum Einstieg raten, sehen andere das Schlimmste erst noch auf die Märkte zukommen. Beide Seiten haben gute Argumente. Selten war die Vielfalt an Meinungen unter den Aktienexperten so groß wie in diesen Tagen.”

    Fazit: Viele Meinungen, die Wahrheit kommt bald ans Licht. Ich bleibe bei der charttechnik und hoffe, dass es runter geht 😉

  3. tricktrade sagt:

    Ich bemerke gerade in diesem Moment, dass ich deinen Blog wesentlich öfter aufrufen sollte 🙂 – da kommt man echt auf Einfälle


 

     

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