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Scheinbar tritt nun ein, was viele befürchtet haben: die starken Kursanstiege in den bedeutenden, westlichen Indizes seit März 2009 waren zu rasant. Gründe hierfür gibt es genug, eine Korrektur der Aktienmärkte war hinfällig. Der Dow Jones fällt in nur drei Tagen auf ein Viermonatstief. Weitere Hinweise birgt die Chartanalyse.
Der Dow Jones Industrial Average, der weltweit wohl bedeutendste Aktienindex, der die 30 größten US-Unternehmen abbildet, konnte seit März 2009 ein Plus von 40% verbuchen. Es gibt gute Gründe, warum eine deutliche Korrektur absehbar war.
Als wichtigster Grund ist wohl die Niedrig-Zins-Politik der amerikanischen Zentralbank (FED) zu nennen, die es institutionellen Investoren (Banken, Hedgefonds) ermöglichte, günstig Geld zu leihen und direkt am Aktienmarkt zu investieren. Ein Geschäft, das sich wahrscheinlich sehr gelohnt hat, schaut man sich beispielsweise die Quartalszahlen von Goldman Sachs an (19,8 Mrd. USD Gewinn in 2009!).
Es ist nur eine Frage der Zeit, wann sich die ersten Investoren “sattgefressen” haben und ihre Gewinne allmählich realsieren möchten. Eine einschlägige Nachricht würde wohl reichen, um den Großinvestoren den Appetit zu verderben.
Obamas Pläne, zukünftig US-Banken den Eigenhandel des Eigenkapitals zu untersagen, könnte der Auslöser für jene Korrektur sein, glaubt man der Chartanalyse:
Sämtliche bedeutende Indizes durchbrachen wichtige Aufwärtstrends, gleitende Durchschnitte und Unterstützungslinien. Per Definition ist der Aufwärtstrend seit Februar also beendet und einer ausgedehnten Korrektur steht wohl vorerst nichts im Weg.
Hier eine Übersicht der wichtigsten Indizes (draufklicken):
Dow Jones Industrial Average
S&P 500
Nasdaq
DAX 30
Die charttechnischen Signale der oben gezeigten Indizes ergänzen sich gegenseitig, was deren Bedeutung verstärkt. Aufgrund all dieser bärischen Hinweise sind wir ebenfalls mit einem Short-Produkt eingestiegen. Im nächsten Artikel erfahrt ihr darüber mehr.
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