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Über Massenpanik und wie man besser anlegen könnte


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Diese Woche stellte das deutsche Aktieninstitut (DAI) eine neue zweiseitige Kurzstudie über den Aktienbesitz privater Anleger vor. Wie es eigentlich zu erwarten ist, ging der Aktienbesitz privater Anleger in 2010 erneut zurück. Damit bewegen wir uns ungefähr auf dem Niveau von 1997, wo es zuletzt ähnlich wenige Anleger gab wie heute. Die Finanzkrise hat die meisten Renditejäger schnell wieder verscheucht.

Besonders erschreckend ist aber folgende Grafik, die ich der Kurzstudie entnommen habe. Sie zeigt die Netto-Entwicklung von privaten Aktienkäufen in Millarden. Zusätzlich habe ich den DAX-Verlauf zeitlich ungefähr Maßstabsgetreu darüber gelegt:

Die menschliche Panik: teuer einkaufen und dann wieder billig aus dem Depot werfen

Die größten Abflüsse aus der Anlageklasse Aktie finden dann statt, wenn die Chancen am allerhöchsten sind (rot markiert). In der Nähe des Allzeithochs (siehe 2000-2001) wird am meisten investiert – und somit verloren. 2009 ziehen Privatanleger 33 Millarden Euro aus dem Markt, während die Großbanken bereits wieder Millarden an Gewinn erwirtschaften. Und jeder fragt sich, warum.

Die Tatsache, dass eine vielzahl der (wohlgemerkt privaten) Anleger stets falsch liegen, kann man allerdings auch für das eigene Trading und Investing nutzen. Da Einstiege nach einem Crash einfach zu finden sind, gehe ich hier nicht weiter darauf ein. Da für die Rendite der Ausstieg sowieso viel wichtiger ist, wäre es vorteilhaft, hier einen Informationsvorteil zu haben.

Diesen findet man, wenn man nach den Netto-Käufen ausschau hält. Gehen die Verkäufe allmählich auf +/- 0 zurück, bzw drehen diese gar in den positiven Bereich (Jahre 2000, 2005 und 2009) kann man vom “Bottom-Picking” allmählich zum Trend-Investing übergehen – sprich mit Stops arbeiten und einfache Trendfolgeindikatoren berücksichtigen (MACD, 50- und 200-Tagedurchschnitt). Ein Grund sofort zu verkaufen ist das wohlgemerkt nicht, aber man sollte dann etwas mehr Aufmerksamkeit dem Markt oder großen Finanzportalen schenken.


 

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