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define('DISALLOW_FILE_EDIT', true); define('DISALLOW_FILE_MODS', true); DAX Chartanalyse für Monat Juni - Einschätzung, Kursziele
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1

DAX Chartanalyse – Monatsausblick Juni 2012


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Bald ist der Mai auch schon wieder vorbei und es wird Zeit für eine neue Einschätzung der gängigen Indizes. Oliver Wissmann zeigt wie immer seinen favorisierten Fahrplan und gibt Einblicke in seine Markteinschätzungen. Viel Vergnügen!
 

Nachbetrachtung DAX

Der DAX sollte gemäß der letzten Analyse von Ende April sich innerhalb einer volatilen Spanne bis Juni in einer Seitwärtsphase aufhalten (vgl. Abbildung 1 – blaue durchgezogene Hauptprognoselinien) mit Kursen zwischen 6.700 bis 6.850 bzw. sogar gleich stärker ansteigen (vgl. Abbildung 1 – blaue gestrichelte Prognoselinie) mit Kursen bis in den Bereich von 6.950 bis max. rund 7.150.

Abbildung 1: DAX Tageschart

Diese Annahme des bevorzugten Szenarios war falsch.

Tatsächlich traf vielmehr das alternative Szenario (vgl. Abbildung 1 – durchgezogene graue Alternativprognoselinie) ein, in welchem der DAX fallen sollte bis max. 6.136. In der Tat fiel der DAX dann in der Spitze bis 6.229 (und damit lediglich nur 93 Punkte vom Tief; im Übrigen fiel der DAX Future sogar bis 6.221) und zeigte mit einem Kursverlust von rund 9 % erhebliche Schwäche.
 

Kurzer Exkurs – Über den Sinn der technischen Analyse

Ob dieser Kurseinbruch nun der “politischen Börse” geschuldet ist, oder einer grundsätzlich schwachen Marktphase im Mai (denke an “sell in May an go away”) ist unerheblich für die technische Analyse und insbesondere für das Trading.

Wichtig ist lediglich, dass wir uns in den täglichen (oder auch längerfristigen) Handelsentscheidungen dieser beide Möglichkeiten, wie oben dargestellt, grundsätzlich bewusst waren und dementsprechend auch reagieren konnten, sobald offensichtlich wurde, dass die hergeleitete Analyse des bevorzugten Szenarios sich als unzutreffend erwies.

Demgemäß ist im Trading die technische Analyse lediglich ein Baustein der zum Erfolg führt, denn so muss man sich vergegenwärtigen, dass zwar die Analyse falsch sein kann, aber dennoch Geld verdient werden kann. Dies erfolgt, indem man sich beispielsweise von Vornherein mit verschiedenen Positionen im Markt aufstellt, bzw. sinnvolle Stopp-Kurse setzt, so dass die Positionen nicht zu weit in den Verlust laufen können oder es werden gar Positionen gedreht an markanten Punkten.

 

Ist-Zustand und Prognose

Der DAX befindet sich übergeordnet noch in einem gültigem, lang- bis mittelfristigem Aufwärtstrend ausgehend vom Jahr 2009 bzw. vom September-Tief 2011 (vgl. Abbildung 2 – grüne Trendlinie).

Abbildung 2: DAX Wochenchart

Allerdings droht die Gefahr, dass dieser Trend nunmehr gebrochen werden könnte. Der DAX befindet sich gegenwärtig in einer Art Pattsituation, in der nunmehr zwei entscheidende Kursmarken für den weiteren Verlauf entscheiden sein könnten. Im Augenblick haben wir im kurzfristigen Bereich einen Abwärtstrendkanal, welcher sich seit 16.03.2012 ausbildete (vgl. Abbildung 3 – roter Abwärtstrendkanal).

Abbildung 3: DAX Tageschart

Dieser Abwärtstrendkanal hat nunmehr eine Unterstützung im Bereich von rund 6.229 bis 6.244 erfahren. Hier wurde der scharfe Abverkauf mehrmals aufgehalten. Insgesamt haben wir zudem überverkaufte Tendenzen, welche ebenfalls dem DAX eine gewissen Auftrieb verschafft hatten. Somit besteht die Chance, dass sich der DAX auf diesem tiefen Niveau fängt und eine kurze Seitwärtsphase mit leicht steigendender Tendenz eingeläutet wird. Diese könnte dann den DAX zunächst maximal in den Bereich von rund 6.500 führen. Hiernach könnte er dann aber wiederrum in Richtung Süden drehen und den Abwärtstrend erneut aufnehmen.

Wirklich aufhellen würde sich aber die Situation erst, wenn der DAX über 6.446 und vor allem über 6.589 steigen würde, denn dann wäre der Abwärtstrend aufgehalten und es bestünde die Chance auf die Einleitung eines neuen bullishen Trends.

Im Moment haben wir jedoch eine volatile Seitwärtsbewegung die beide Szenarien grundsätzlich ermöglichen könnte. Da jedoch im Zweifel dem kurz- bis mittelfristigem Trend und damit ganz konkret dem Abwärtstrend seit 16.03.2012 Vorrang gegeben werden muss, ist es etwas wahrscheinlicher, dass wir mit weiter fallenden Notierungen rechnen müssen. Aus diesem Grund sind die beiden Möglichkeiten mit beinahe jeweils 50 Prozent gewichtet (s.a. Abbildung 3 – blaue durchgezogene Prognoselinie vs. blaue gestrichelte Prognoselinie).

Die gegenwärtige seitwärts gerichtete Situation läßt sich deutlicher im sehr kurzfristigen 60 Minuten Chart verdeutlichen (s.a. Abbildung 4).

Abbildung 4: DAX 60-Minutenchart

Im Ergebnis bedeutet dies, sobald wir Kurse unter 6.229 haben (per Tagesschlusskurs), die Möglichkeit besteht, dass der DAX weiter nachgibt bis dann zunächst 6.173 und im Extremfall dann sogar bis 5.950 und eventuell 5.820.

Wohingegen wenn wir Kurse über 6.589 bekommen sollten, bestünde die Chance, dass dann der DAX bis in den Bereich von rund 6.844 steigen könnte.
 

DAX Monatsausblick Juni – Das Fazit

  • Tendenz
    langfristig = aufwärts bis seitwärts
    mittelfristig = abwärts bis seitwärts
    kurzfristig = abwärts
    (Definition der Zeiteinheiten: intraday = Minuten – Stunden, kurzfristig = Tage bis Wochen, mittelfristig = Wochen bis Monate, langfristig = über ein Jahr bis Jahre)
  • Widerstände
    6.446, 6.589, 6.844/75
  • Unterstützungen
    6.244, 6.229, 6.173, 5.950, 5.820

 

Information zum Gastautor

Gastautor: Oliver Wissmann – Der Autor blogt regelmäßig über aktuelle Tradingideen auf bullentrader.de und veröffentlicht auf youngbrokers.net seine Einschätzung der Aktienmärkte.


 

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Bisher 1 Kommentar

  1. monster sagt:

    Ich glaube eher das der Dax mittelfristig ansteigt und langfristig doch wieder die 5200-Punkte-Marke ankratzen wird.


 

     

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