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Mit dieser Serie möchten wir mit unserem Gastautor Oliver Wissmann einen regelmäßigen monatlichen Dax-Ausblick starten. Viel Spaß beim Lesen! Eine gute Trading Woche wünscht der Bullentrader und youngbrokers.net!
Nachbetrachtung
Der DAX hat sich in der vergangenen Woche (KW 17) erfolgreich an einer Bodenbildung versucht, mit der die Abwärtsbewegung, welche seit Ende März 2012 läuft, aufgehalten wurde. Dies bedeutet, dass die übergeordnete Aufwärtsbewegung nach wie vor gültig ist (s. Wochenchart, Abbildung 1 + 2).
Rückblickend verhielt sich der DAX so wie letzte Woche prognostiziert. Der DAX drehte an der signifikanten Unterstützungszone um die 6.490 bis 6.550 und legte dann bis Freitag, 27.04. bis 6.800 zu (vgl. Abbildung 2).
In diesem Zusammenhang wird auch die Bedeutung der nunmehr mustergültigen Divergenz aus dem RSI mit dem DAX Tiefständen vom 13.04. und 23.04. deutlich. Die RSI/DAX – Divergenz hat uns tatsächlich ein frühes Signal für einen Bodenbildungsprozess für die vergangene Woche aufgezeigt.
Ist-Zustand und Prognose
Im Moment haben wir die Chance, dass der DAX weiter steigt. Dies könnte über zwei Möglichkeiten geschehen die schlussendlich in den nächsten Wochen zur selben Zielzone, dem diesjährigen Jahreshoch, führen dürften. Die erste Alternative des bevorzugten Verlaufs wäre ein kurzer Rücksetzer ausgehend vom gegenwärtigem Kursniveau von rund 6.800, der dann in den Bereich von rund 6.700 führen könnte. Hier dürfte er dann drehen, um dann schnell und direkt 6.850 zu erreichen und schlussendlich bis Mitte/Ende der Woche den Bereich von rund 6.915, maximal die 6.965 zu erreichen (s. Abbildung 2 blaue durchgezogene Prognoselinie).
Die zweite Alternative des bevorzugten Verlaufs wäre ein sofortiges Ansteigen am Montag, 30.04. auf 6.850 und eine impulsive Bewegung auf die 6.965. In diesem Fall wäre aber dann hier zunächst eine kurze Verschnaufpause einzuplanen, um dann -aber erst im Laufe der 2. oder 3. Mai Woche- in Richtung Jahreshochs von 7.193 zu steigen (s. Abbildung 2 blaue gestrichelte Prognoselinie).
Wie oben bereits angedeutet würden diese beide Alternativen jedoch in die selbe Zielzone führen, sei es nun innerhalb der nächsten Wochen oder eben erst im Verlauf des Juni bis Juli/Anfang August. Spätestens Anfang August dürfte es sich dann entscheiden, ob er dann an der 7.193 bis 7.233 abprallt und in stärkerem Maße fällt, oder er die Grundlagen schafft, um über diesen Widerstandbereich signifikant zu steigen und schlussendlich die 7.566/600 nimmt.
Das unwahrscheinlichere Alternativszenario würde eingeläutet werden mit einem Durchbruch nach unten unter die starke Unterstützungszone von 6.500/6.490. Wenn diese Unterstützung fallen sollte, ist der bevorzugte Kursverlauf hinfällig und wir würden uns wahrscheinlich dann einer recht bearishen Entwicklung gegenüber sehen. In diesem Fall dürften die 6.136 bzw. 6.000 zügig erreicht werden (s. Abbildung 2 graue Prognoselinie). Hier sollte dann aber zunächst der Absturz aufgehalten werden.
DAX Monatsausblick Mai – Das Fazit
- Tendenz
langfristig = aufwärts
mittelfristig = aufwärts
kurzfristig = aufwärts
(Definition der Zeiteinheiten: intraday = Minuten – Stunden, kurzfristig = Tage bis Wochen, mittelfristig = Wochen bis Monate, langfristig = über ein Jahr bis Jahre) - Widerstände
6.800, 6.850, 6.915, 6.965, 7.193, 7.233, 7.566/600 - Unterstützungen
6.655, 6.550, 6.500/6.490, 6.442, 6.276, 6.136, 6000
Information zum Gastautor
Gastautor: Oliver Wissmann – Der Autor blogt regelmäßig über aktuelle Tradingideen auf bullentrader.de und veröffentlicht auf youngbrokers.net seine Einschätzung der Aktienmärkte.