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Zugegeben: Die Woche ist zwar fast vorbei, dennoch will ich die erste Dax-Wochenanalyse unseres Autors Oliver Wissmann nicht vorenthalten. Versprochen, nächstes mal bin ich schneller! 😉 An dieser Stelle ein herzliches Willkommen an Oliver!
Nachbetrachtung
Der DAX befindet sich seit Ende März in einer Abwärtsbewegung und verlor dabei mehr als 9 % von seinem Jahreshöchststand von 7.194. Übergeordnet befinden wir uns jedoch im mittelfristigen Zeitfenster dennoch nach wie vor in einem Aufwärtstrend (vgl. Chart Abbildung 4).
Ist-Zustand und Prognose
Gegenwärtig befinden wir uns im DAX in einer spannenden Situation: Es besteht die Chance, dass er sich nun wieder im Bereich von rund 6.500/6.490 fängt und einen Boden bildet. Hervorzuheben ist hierbei eine bullische Divergenz, die man beobachten kann im Tageschart (s.a. Chart Abbildung 2). Der RSI (mit Standardeinstellung) bildet das neuerliche Tief vom Montag, 23.04.2012, nicht mehr nach. Daneben haben wir heute einen positiven Tag gesehen und insbesondere im späten US-Handel haben der Dow Jones als auch der S&P500 stark zugelegt, was für Mittwoch ebenfalls im DAX weiter für Stützung sorgen sollte.
Im Ergebnis haben wir damit Raum in den kommenden zwei bis drei Tagen nach oben in den Bereich um die 6.700 bis max. 6.750.
Sollten wir signifikant, also nicht nur mit einem Intraday-Spike, sondern per Tagesschlusskurs über die 6.750 steigen, wäre Platz bis 6.850 maximal 6.970.
Gelänge es dem Kurs tatsächlich innerhalb dieser Woche über den vorgenannten Bereich zu steigen, stünden alsbald die Jahreshochs auf dem Kurszettel an.
Das unwahrscheinlichere Alternativszenario wäre, wenn wir dagegen unter die massive Unterstützungszone im Bereich von 6.550 bis 6.490 (zugleich Verlauf des gleitenden Durschnitts EMA 200 und 50 Wochen EMA) fallen, denn dann sind Abgaben bis 6.280 und 6.173 wahrscheinlich.
Fazit
- Tendenz
langfristig = aufwärts
mittelfristig = aufwärts
kurzfristig = seitwärts / aufwärts
(Definition der Zeiteinheiten: intraday = Minuten – Stunden, kurzfristig = Tage bis Wochen, mittelfristig = Wochen bis Monate, langfristig = über ein Jahr bis Jahre) - Widerstände
6.670/73, 6.700, 6.800, 6.967, 7.153/94 - Unterstützungen
6.550, 6.500, 6.487, 6.430, 6.280, 6.173
DAX Chartanalysen
DAX-Tageschart (1 Kerze = 1 Tag; blau = bevorzugtes Szenario, grau = alternatives Szenario)
Detail-Tageschart (1 Kerze = 1 Tag; blau = bevorzugtes Szenario, grau = alternatives Szenario)
Wochenchart (1 Kerze = 1 Woche; blau = bevorzugtes Szenario, grau = alternatives Szenario)
Detail-Wochenchart (1 Kerze = 1 Woche; blau = bevorzugtes Szenario, grau = alternatives Szenario)
Monatschart (1 Kerze = 1 Monat; blau = bevorzugtes Szenario, grau = alternatives Szenario)
Information zum Gastautor
Gastautor: Oliver Wissmann – Der Autor blogt regelmäßig über aktuelle Tradingideen auf bullentrader.de und veröffentlicht auf youngbrokers.net seine Einschätzung der Aktienmärkte.
