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0

Bernanke beflügelt die Börse – US-Geldpolitik bleibt weiter locker


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Federal Reserve (FED)

Die jüngste Rede von Fed-Chef Bernanke lässt ein längere expansive
Geldpolitik erwarten, als bisher vermutet.
Bildquelle: Fotolia.de
 

So schnell kann sich der Tenor wieder ändern: Noch vor wenigen Tagen verunsicherte US-Notenbankchef Ben Bernanke die Märkte mit einer eventuell bevorstehenden Reduzierung des Anleihekaufprogramms QE3. In seiner jüngsten Rede spricht Bernanke jedoch deutlichere Töne. Wegen hoher Arbeitslosigkeit und niedriger Inflation wird die Fed weiterhin an Anleihekäufen und niedrigen Zinsen festhalten.

Die an den Finanzmärkten ab Herbst erwartete schrittweise geldpolitische Straffung durch Reduzierung des Anleihekaufprogramms “Quantitative Easing III” (QE3) in den vereinigten Staaten ist nun keineswegs mehr sicher.

Chef der amerikanischen Notenbank Ben Bernanke sagte am vergangenen Mittwoch auf einer Konferenz im Bundesstaat Massachusetts, die lockere, expansive Geldpolitik sei auch in naher Zukunft weiterhin erforderlich. Die Begründung sei vor Allem der Arebitsmarkt, welcher nicht so gut sei, wie es die Arbeitslosenquote vermuten lasse. Die Inflation sei hingegen nach wie vor verhältnismäßig gering. Bernanke prognostiziert, dass die Inflation sich wieder der Rate von zwei Prozent annähere, die von der Fed offiziell als Ziel angegeben wurde.

Euro Dollar

Währungskurse waren nach der jüngsten
Rede Bernankes wieder volatil.
 

Eine gleiche Stimmung verlautbaren auch die Protokolle der Fed-Sitzung: Viele Notenbanker des Offenmarktausschusses (FOMC, Federal Open Market Committee) seien bei der letzten Sitzung überzeugt gewesen, dass sich die aktuelle Situation am Arbeitsmarkt zunächst weiter verbessern müsse. “Beinahe alle Fed-Mitglieder waren für eine Fortsetzung der lockeren Geldpolitik”, so eine Zitat aus dem Protokoll. Erst wenn sich die Arbeitsmarktdaten nachhaltig verbessern, würde die Fed Anpassungen am Zinsniveau vornehmen. Es gebe darüber hinaus aber ausdrücklich keinen Automatismus, der das Zinsniveau anhebt, wenn die Arbeitslosenquote auf die gewünschten 6,5 Prozent gesunken sei. Analysten prognostizierten die Erreichung des Zielwerts von 6,5 Prozent erst auf Sommer 2015.
 

Unklare Situation bezüglich des angekündigten Ausstiegs

Kim Rupert, Analyst bei Action Economics: „Ich glaube, der Zeitpunkt ist jetzt unklarer als zuvor.“ Viele Analysten gingen nach einer aktuellen Umfrage davon aus, dass bereits im September eine Reduzierung des Anleihekaufprogramms starten würde. Die aktuellen und unerwarteten Worte des Fed-Chefs lassen diese Pläne aber zumindest anzweifeln.

Erst Mitte Juni hatte Bernanke erklärt, dass je nach Entwicklung der Konjunktur die Ankäufe ab Herbst 2013 zurückgefahren werden könnten, bis hin zu einer Einstellung des Programmes Mitte 2014. Investoren deuteten dies im überwiegenden Konsens als einen bevorstehenden Kurswechsel der Fed hin zu einer kontraktiven Geldpolitik.
 

85 Milliarden Dollar monatlich: Das Anleihekaufprogramm der USA

Das durchaus in manchen Kreisen umstrittene Anleihekaufprogramm QE3 sieht vor, monatlich Staats- und Immobilienpapiere im Wert von 85 Milliarden US-Dollar zu kaufen. Bezahlt werden jene Wertpapiere durch die Fed selbst. Dieser Mechanismus soll die Konjunktur ankurbeln und für frische Liquidität sorgen.


 

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