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Chartanalyse Deutsche Bank – Langsam in die Enge getrieben


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Skyline Frankfurt mit Deutsche Bank Gebäude

Bank-Aktien verhalten sich in Zeiten größerer Unsicherheit äußerst Volatil. Auch die Aktie der Deutsche Bank AG ist hier nicht ausgenommen, obwohl sie im Branchenvergleich zu den stärksten Bankwerten gehört. Derzeit steht die Aktie wieder vor einer wichtigen Kursmarke, die unbedingt verteidigt werden muss, sollten weitere Abverkäufe vermieden werden.
 

Seit September 2012 notiert der Kurs der Aktie in einem großen Seitwärtsmarkt. Kurzfristige Händler konnten hier zwar dennoch von mittelfristigen Trends profitieren, das große Gesamtbild ist jedoch derzeit unklar. Etabliert hat sich über viele Monate ein wichtiges Widerstandscluster zwischen 38,00 und 40,00 Euro. Bereits vier mal mussten hier die Käufer wieder das Ruder an die Verkäufer übergeben.

Das Unterstützungsniveau der Range hingegen wurde zwischen 20,00 und 22,00 Euro deutlich gekennzeichnet. Rasch Gegenbewegungen wurden bereits zwei Mal eingeleitet.
 

Ausblick

Derzeit schreitet der Wert mit großen Schritten auf die psychologisch äußerst wichtige und markante Marke von 30,00 Euro zu. Diese Level hat sich in der Vergangenheit als sehr valide erwiesen und wird mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeit auch in naher Zukunft zumindest eine Gegenbewegung einleiten. Auch der Relative-Stärke-Index (RSI) notiert bald im überverkauften Bereich, oftmals ein Zeichen einer bevorstehenden Richtungsänderung.

Sollte die Marke bei 30 Euro verteidigt werden, ist eine Gegebewegung mindestens bis auf das Niveau des 200-Tage-Durchschnittes zu erwarten. Die nächste Station wäre dann das Level des leicht fallenden Abwärtstrendes, der dann bei ca. 36 Euro verlaufen dürfte. Spätestens hier muss das Chartbild erneut evaluiert werden, da dort die Relevanz des eingangs erwähnten Widerstandsclusters zunimmt.

Chartanalyse der Deutschen Bank vom 03.07.2013

Chartanalyse Deutsche Bank AG auf dem Tageschart
Die 30-Euro-Marke wird mittelfristig ein wichtiger Entscheidungspunkt
 

 

Im Falle eines raschen Durchbruches der 30-Euro-Marke verschlechtert sich die mittelfristige Sicht des Wertpapiers deutlich. Hier ist gegebenenfalls mit einem Rücksetzer auf die Unterstützngszone zu rechnen, ein weiterer Verfall des Kurses in Richtung der Unterstützungszone ab 22,00 Euro ist dann aber das priorisierte Szenario.

Kurzfristig agierende Investoren können auf einen Abpraller der Unterstützungszone nach oben spekulieren und eine Stop-Order direkt unter das Unterstützungsniveau platzieren.
 

Offenlegung gemäß §34b WpHG wegen möglicher Interessenkonflikte: Der Autor ist in den besprochenen Wertpapieren bzw. Basiswerten zum Zeitpunkt der Veröffentlichung dieser Analyse nicht investiert.


 

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