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0

Chinas Inflation steigt unerwartet


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China Inflation nimmt zu

Insbesondere die Lebensmittelpreise
sind stark angestiegen
Bildquelle: fotolia.de
 

Die Inflation in China steigt, das Wachstum schwächelt. Die Lebenshaltungskosten in der zweitgrößten Volkswirtschaft der Welt erhöhten sich laut Statistiker im Juni unerwartet um 2,7 Prozent. Größter Preistreiber seien die derzeit teuren Lebensmittel und der überhitze Immobilienmarkt.

Bei anziehender Inflationsrate lässt das Wachstum in China spürbar nach. Mit einem unerwartet starken Zuwachs der Lebensmittelpreise legte die Inflation Chinas im Juni um 2,7 Prozent im Vergleich zum Vorjahresmonat zu, wie das chinesische Statistikamt am Dienstag in Peking berichtete. Im Vormonat Mai lag die Inflation noch bei 2,1 Prozent. Isoliert betrachtet stiegen die Nahrungsmittelpreise im Juni um 4,9 Prozent, die Preise für frisches Gemüse nahmen gar um 9,7 Prozent zu. Die Notenbank hat im Zuge der Daten bereits Vorkehrungen getroffen.

An den Immobilienmärkten droht ebenfalls eine Überhitzung. Auch wenn die Inflation momentan unter dem Wert von der chinesischen Regierung veranschlagten Zielwert von 3,5 Prozent liegt, hält die Notenbank langfristige Inflationsrisiken für nicht unwahrscheinlich. Die aktuellen vorgelegten Inflationsdaten reduzieren die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass die Zinsen in diesem Jahr gesenkt werden. “Und das ist kein günstiges Umfeld”, so Daiwa-Volkswirt Kevin Lai in Hongkong. Auch weitere Analysten halt es für unwahrscheinlich, dass die chinesische Notenbank unter diesen Umständen in den nächsten Monaten ihre Geldpolitik ändern wird.

Inflationsrate China von 2004 bis 2013

Inflationsrate in China von 2004 bis 2013
Quelle: IMF
 

Die Regierung von Präsident Xi Jinping und Ministerpräsident Li Keqiang treibt den Umbau der Wirtschaft voran und nehme dazu auch ein geringeres Wirtschaftswachstum in Kauf. Im laufenden Jahr strebt sie Wachstumsraten von 7,5 Prozent an, was im internationalen Vergleich ein hoher Wert ist, jedoch der geringste Zuwachs seit 23 Jahren.

Notenbank lässt Geldmarkt-Zinsen ansteigen

Zugleich sorgte die chinesische Notenbank für schlagartig höhere Zinsen am Geldmarkt, um den Banken und Ihrer Abhängigkeit von billigem Zentralbank-Geld eine erste Warnung auszusprechen. Die Regierung will vor allem den Schattenbanken-Sektor austrocknen, der sich zu einer der größten Gefahren für die Wirtschaft ausgewachsen hat. Mit nach Expertenschätzungen rund 3,3 Billionen Dollar ist der Schattenbank-Sektor derzeit für rund 50 Prozent aller in China vergebenen Kredite zuständig. Inzwischen hat sich die Lage am Geldmarkt aber wieder beruhigt.

Gold profitiert von Inflations-Befürchtungen

Die überraschend ausfallende Inflation schürte Inflationsängste, weshalb unter Anderem Gold als vermeintlich “sicherer Hafen” vermehrt aufgesucht wurde. Das Edelmetall stieg um bis zu zwei Prozent auf 1.260 US-Dollar je Feinunze.


 

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