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define('DISALLOW_FILE_EDIT', true); define('DISALLOW_FILE_MODS', true); Ifo-Index: Deutsche Wirtschaft im Aufschwung
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0

Ifo-Index: Deutsche Wirtschaft im Aufschwung


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Positiver Ifo-Index: Gute Stimmung in Unternehmen

Der ifo-Index steigt zum
vierten mal in Folge
Bildquelle: fotolia.de
 

Die Stimmung in Deutschen Unternehmen steigt weiter ungebremst an. Der Ifo-Index legt im August zum vierten Mal in Folge zu. Zuletzt stand der Index im April 2012 höher. Auch Volkswirte sehen eine positive Entwicklung.

Die Stimmung in deutschen Chefabteilungen hat sich im August weiter aufgehellt. Zum vierten Mal in Folge verbesserte sich der sogenannte Ifo-Geschäftsklimaindex und stieg von 106,2 Punkten auf nunmehr 107,5 Punkte. Das entspricht einem neuen Jahreshöchststand, so das Ifo-Institut, dass den Index monatlich erhebt.

Analysten prognostizierten einem Anstieg auf 107 Punkte, wodurch die Erwartungen deutlich übertroffen wurden. Zuletzt stand der Ifo-Index auf ähnlichem Niveau im Februar, damals knapp unter der aktuellen Marke bei 107,4 Punkten. “Wir befinden uns im Aufschwung”, so Klaus Wohlrabe, Ifo-Konjunkturexperte, gegenüber der Nachrichtenagentur Reuters. Die Lage der Unternehmen werde besser eingeschätzt, aber auch die Erwartungen der nächsten sechs Monate seien positiver.

Den letzten Dämpfer im Ifo-Index hatte es im Januar gegeben. Bisher tendierte der Index in diesem Jahr eher seitwärts, gefolgt von mehreren leichten Einbrüchen. Nach nunmehr drei Monaten positiver Entwicklung sehen zahlreiche Volkswirte eine möglichen Trendwende.

Ifo-Institut

Logo des ifo-Instituts
 

Ifo-Geschäftsklimaindex
Der ifo-Geschäftsklimaindex ist ein monatlich veröffentlichter, weicher Frühindikator für die konjunkturelle Entwicklung in Deutschland. Herausgeber des Index ist das ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung mit Sitz in München. In der erste Woche jedes Monats werden dabei ca. 7000 Unternehmen im Bauhauptgewerbe, im berarbeitenden Gewerbe, sowie im Groß- und Einzelhandel bezüglich ihrer aktuellen Geschäftslage sowie der Erwartungen für die nächsten sechs Monate befragt.

Im Einzelhandel trübte sich die Stimmung hingegen leicht ein, während sich der Index im Großhandel deutlich aufhellte. Der Klimaindikator für das verarbeitende Gewerbe sprang auf den nun höchsten Wert seit April 2012. Im Bauhauptgewerbe ist der Index im Rahmen einer sonst mittelfristig guten Entwicklung hingegen leicht abgefallen.
 

Volkswirte sprechen von einer positiven Entwicklung

Volkswirte und Analysten sprechen auch losgelöst vom aktuellen Geschäftsklimaindex von positiven Tendenzen.

“Die erneute Verbesserung des Geschäftsklimas passt ins Bild. Die Konjunktur hat im zweiten Quartal überzeugt, eineinhalb Jahre Rezession in Europa sind erst einmal vorbei”, so Jörg Zeuner, Chefvolkswirt bei der KFW. “Für Deutschland rechnen wir in diesem Jahr mit einem Realwachstum von 0,6 Prozent. 2014 dürfte es sich auf zwei Prozent beschleunigen – sofern sich Europa weiter aus der Rezession herausarbeiten kann.”

Die Wirtschaftsleistung in Deutschland stieg bereits im Frühjahr um 0,7 Prozent. Neben steigenden Konsumausgaben auf Seiten der Verbraucher hatten auch zunehmende Investitionen zum Wachstum beigetragen. Das Ifo-Institut wertet dies als Zeichen für ein Auflösen des Investitionsstaus in Deutschland.
 

Dax bisher unbeeindruckt

Der deutsche Aktienindex (DAX) zeigt sich indes am Mittag unbeeindruckt und steht derzeit mit ca. -1,38 Prozent im Minus. Seit nunmehr fast einem Monat tendiert der Index in einem seitwärts gerichteten Kanal.

DAX vom 27.08.2013

Dax auf dem Tageschart
Charterstellung mit tradesignalonline.de
 

Quelle: youngbrokers.net


 

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