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Überraschend positiver EU-Einkaufsmanagerindex


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Einkaufsmanagerindex

Noch meldet die Industrie in der gesamten Euro-Zone schrumpfende Produktion und Beschäftigung. Doch in allen Ländern verbessern sich die Werte im Frühwarnsystem der Einkaufsmanager deutlich. Einen besonders großen Sprung macht Spanien.

Die Wachstumsprognosen der deutschen Industrie hellen sich immer mehr auf. Gute Geschäfte auf dem Binnenmarkt sowie im Export machen es möglich. Denn so stieg der Einkaufsmanagerindex für das verarbeitende Gewerbe im Mai überraschend deutlich von 46,7 Punkten auf nunmehr 48,3 Zähler, was somit den höchsten Wert seit Februar 2012 markiert. Erwartet wurden von Analysten lediglich 48,7 Punkte. Somit fehlen nur wenige Punkte für den Schwellenwert bei 50 Punkten, ab dem von Wachstum ausgegangen wird. Seit 22. Monaten notiert der Einkaufsmanagerindex unter der wichtigen 50-Punkte-Marke.

Einkaufsmanagerindex (EMI) als wichtiger Wirtschaftsindikator

Der Einkaufsmanagerindex (EMI) ist ein seit 1996 monatlich veröffentlichter Wirtschaftsindikator zur Messung der Konjunkturentwicklung in der Bundesrepbulik. Der EMI liefert dabei einen Indexwert, der um den Schwellenwert von 50 Punkten oszilliert. Der EMI gilt als sehr verlässlicher Frühindikator für wirtschaftliche Entwicklungen. Erhoben wird der Index basierend auf Umfragen, die somit deutlich aktueller als die offiziellen Statistiken sind.

“Aufträge sowie Produktion sind erstmals seit drei Monaten wieder gestiegen”, sagte Ökonom Tim Moore von Markit. “Eine stärkere Binnennachfrage hat die Produktion angeheizt, während die sinkenden Exporte innerhalb des Euroraums überwiegend durch neue Aufträge aus USA und China ausgeglichen wurden.” Grund dafür sind unter anderem die sehr geringen Verkaufspreise der exportierenden Unternehmen. Durch stark gesunkene Preise von wichtigen Fertigungsmaterialien wie bspw. Metalle, die so niedrig sind wie seit fast 4 Jahen nicht mehr, können europäische exportstarke Nationen wie Deutschland sehr günstig produzieren.

Frankreich, Italien und Spanien ebenfalls stark

Deutschland steht jedoch nicht alleine als positiver Überraschungskandidat da: Der französische Einkaufsmanagerindex stieg auf 46,4 Punkte bei vorab erwarteten 45,1 Punkten. Die italienische Industrie meldete 47,3 Punkte bei Analystenprognosen von 46,1 Punkten. Spanien kommt mit 48,1 Punkte auf den höchsten Wert seit 24 Monaten. Für die Euro-Zone insgesamt wurde ein Einkaufsmanagerindex von 48,3 Punkten ermittelt.


 

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