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Kürzel: USD/JPY · ISIN: XC0009659910 · Kursstand: 96,3600
Die heftige Abwertung des japnischen Yen bekommt seit einigen Wochen ihren Gegenwind. Diverse Währungspaare, die gegen den Yen gehandelt werden, pausieren die teilweise sehr steilen Bewegungen seit Ende 2012. Das vielgehandelte Währungspaar USD/JPY befindet sich ebenfalls in einer Korrekturphase, welche bisher vier Handelwsochen umfasst. Gerade jene bald endende Woche kennzeichnete sich wie die Vorwoche durch enorme Abgaben. Im Verhältnis zur Rally seit Ende 2012 relativieren sich diese jedoch wieder.
Nichstdestotrotz: der Aufwärtstrend im Devisenpaar ist hierbei deutlich durchstoßen und besondesr unterhalb der 97,10 JPY Marke können weitere Rücksetzer nicht ausgeschlossen werden. Vom Tief aus dem Jahre 2011 bei 75,58 JPY bis zum letzten Mehrjahreshoch vom Mai bei 103,70 JPY zeigt sich außerdem, dass im Bereich des nächsten Korrekturziels bei rund 93,00 JPY erst 38,00% dieses Bewegungsimpulses korrigiert wären.
Das Devisenpaar USD/JPY im Wochenchart
Big Picture Analyse im Weekly Chart – Created Using MT4-JFD-Brokers
Prognose
Auf Tagesbasis ist der USD/JPY aktuell zwar schon klar überverkauft, doch im Falle der aktuellen Gegenbewegung spricht dies nicht unbedingt für eine nachhaltige Trendumkehr. Im kurzen Zeithorizont sollten daher durchaus noch Abgaben bis in den Kursbereich um ca. 93,00 JPY eingeplant werden, bevor es zu einer etwaigen Seitwärtsphase kommen könnte. Kursnotierungen jenseits von 90,80 JPY dürften jedoch früher oder später einen weiteren Abverkauf bis in die Widerstandszone von 86,50 JPY bis 87,00 JPY nach sich tragen. Speziell südlich der 86,00 JPY Marke würde sich zudem die seit einem Monat gestartete Abwärtsbewegung noch weiter beschleunigen.
Preise über 97,10 JPY könnten andernfalls einen Test des kurzfristigen Abwärtstrends um 98,50 JPY einleiten. Erst oberhalb von 99,50 JPY und insbesondere oberhalb der psychologischen Marke von 100,00 JPY hätte das Währungspaar jedoch erst die Chance einer Rally-Fortsetzung.
Das Währungspaar im Tageschart: Eine Kerze entspricht einem Tag
Charterstellung mit MT4-JFD-Brokers
Offenlegung gemäß §34b WpHG wegen möglicher Interessenkonflikte: Der Autor ist in den besprochenen Wertpapieren bzw. Basiswerten zum Zeitpunkt der Veröffentlichung dieser Analyse nicht investiert.
