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In einer aktuellen Chartanalyse widmen wir uns dem allseits bekannten Orangensaft. Denn hier steht in Kürze ein potentielles, lukratives Tradingsetup bevor. Die folgende ausführliche Analyse soll ein umfassendes Bild über die derzeitige sowohl fundamentale, als auch charttechnische Situation schaffen.
Zunächst alle Schlüsselfaktoren komprimiert in der Übersicht.
[su_box title=”Basiswert Übersicht” style=”soft” box_color=”#2d2c8e” radius=”2″]Zeithorizont, kurz- bis mittelfristig auf die Dauer von mehreren Wochen bis einigen Monaten
Tendenz kurzfristig (Tage bis Wochen), abwärts
Tendenz mittelfristig (Wochen bis Monate), abwärts
Tendenz langfristig (Monate bis Jahre), seitwärts bis aufwärts
Widerstandszone, 152.47-154.58
166.09-168.37 (Jahreshöchststand)
Unterstützungszonen, 136.93-138.95 (mögliche Zone zugleich mögliche Widerstandszone; vgl. Polaritätswechsel)
116.08-117.68 (mögliche Zone – zugleich Zielzone)
Fundamentale und längerfristige Betrachtung
Übergeordneter Chartverlauf
Orangesaft befindet sich seit dem Jahreshoch Ende März / Anfang April von rund 166 in einem Abwärtstrend (vgl. großer Trendkanal in Abbildung 3).
Nachfrage
In den Wintermonaten herrscht im Orangensaft tendenziell eher eine geringere Nachfrage seitens der Verbraucher, was grundsätzlich den Preis eher abschwächen lassen sollte.
Dies dient jedoch lediglich als eine Hintergrundinformation und sollte im Trading keinesfalls als alleiniges Entscheidungskriterium betrachtet werden.
Saisonalität
Interessant ist jedoch, dass diese grundsätzliche Nachfrageschwäche sich auch in saisonalen Charts –wenngleich verzögert- niederschlägt (vgl. Abbildung 1).
Abbildung 1: Saisonalität im Organgensaft
Chart erstellt mit Tai Pan von Lenz & Partner (lp-software.de)
In Abbildung 1 ist der im unteren Drittel die Kursentwicklung als „seasonal chart“ auf 10 Jahre dargestellt. Hier ist sehr deutlich zu erkennen, dass die Preise in der Regel ab ca. Märze/April langsam anziehen, um dann von Sommer bis ca. Oktober Höchststände erreichen und dann von diesen Höchstständen anfangen ab ca. November bis Januar zu fallen.
Das bedeutet ebenfalls nicht, dass dieses Kriterium für einen Trade für sich alleine genommen nicht eine Grundlage einer Handelsentscheidung sein sollte. Jedoch, bringt es möglicherweise zusätzliche „Sicherheit“ bei einem Trade.
Währungskorrelation
Ein weiterer interessanter Aspekt ist der US-Dollar und die Korrelation zwischen dem US-Dollar und den Rohstoffpreisen im Allgemeinen und hier im speziellen mit dem Oranegnsaft Future. Grundsätzlich gilt als „Fausregel“, dass wenn der Dollar steigt, die Rohstoffpreise tendenziell fallen.
In Abbildung 2 ist der Organgensaft Future sowie der US Dollar Index (blaue Linie) dargestellt.
Abbildung 2: Preisentwicklung US-Dollar
Chart erstellt mit Tai Pan von Lenz & Partner (lp-software.de)
Hier ist auffällig, dass der US Dollar Index seit ca. Mai stark ansteigt und gleichzeitig der Orangensaft (schwarze Linie) stark fällt. Demnach haben wir hier eine interessante gegenläufige Korrelation, die sich mit der „Faustregel“ zu decken scheint. Jedoch auch hier gilt wie bei den vorgenannten Punkten, dass für sich alleine genommen, dies noch nicht die Rechtfertigung für einen Trade sein sollte.
Allerdings könnte dies dann durch die Kombination aller vorgenannten Punkte und insbesondere durch die konkrete Chartbetrachtung im kurzfristigen Bereich erfolgen.
Aktuelle Situation und Trade Idee
In Abbildung 3 ist von größerem Interesse der Chartverlauf seit August. Hier hat sich ein kurz- bis mittelfristiger Abwärtstrend (vgl. kleiner Trendkanal), innerhalb eines größeren Abwärtstrends etabliert (vgl. großer Trendkanal). Wir haben hier also die besondere Situation eines Trends im Trend.
Abbildung 3: Orangensaft auf dem Tageschart
Chart erstellt mit Tai Pan von Lenz & Partner (lp-software.de)
Innerhalb diese kürzeren Trends gab es im Oktober eine Korrektur, die dann Ende Oktober anfing wieder zu drehen in Richtung des kurzfristigen Trends.
Hinzu kommt, dass diese Korrektur genau an dem 50er gleitenden Durchschnitt (EMA) drehte und dass wir übergeordnet noch ein so genanntes Death Cross haben (ein kürzerer, hier 50er GD schneidet einen längeren hier 200er GD von oben nach unten), was ebenfalls Schwäche andeutet.
Desweiteren kann sich die ehemalige Unterstützungszone bei 136,93-138,95 als mögliche Widerstandszone etablieren, wenn nun der Kurs an dieser abprallt (vgl. Polaritätswechsel).
Das Zwischenfazit ergibt also, dass ein Short Trade grundsätzlich in Frage kommen könnte.
Wenn man nun die vorgenannten Elemente hinzunimmt und kombiniert, so ergibt sich, dass ein Short Trade tatsächlich an diesem Niveau sinnvoller ist, als an anderen Stellen.
Mittels einer Matrix kann zügig dann die Wertigkeit (max. Punktezahl: 15) eines möglichen Trades dargestellt werden.
Im Orangensaft stellt sich dies dann folgendermaßen dar:
Aktuelle Chartsituation, Short, 3
Übergeordnetes Chartbild, Short, 3
Fundamental (Nachfrage), Short, 1
Saisonalität, Short, 2
Währungskorrelation, Short, 2
Ein Trade sollte grundsätzlich nur eingegangen werden, wenn dieser mehr als 5 Punkte hat. Im vorliegenden Fall sind dies 11 von 15 möglichen Punkten! Das heißt, ein Trade hat eine erhöhte Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass dieser erfolgreich wird. Natürlich gibt es keinerlei Garantien hierfür. Die gibt es im spekulativen Handel nie. Jedoch können, wenn nun noch ein konsequentes Risiko-Money-Management und Positionsgrößenmanagement betreiben wird, die Gesamt-Risiken weiter minimiert werden.
Abschließend wie immer das konkrete Tradingsignal.
[su_box title=”Tradesignal Factsheet” style=”soft” box_color=”#2d2c8e” radius=”2″]Stopp, 145.86
Kursziel, 117.79 (max.) / 128.86 (min.)
Chancen-Risiko-Verhältnis, ca. 2.8 zu 1
Offenlegung gemäß §34b WpHG wegen möglicher Interessenkonflikte: Der Autor ist in den besprochenen Wertpapieren bzw. Basiswerten zum Zeitpunkt der Veröffentlichung dieser Analyse investiert.
