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Die Weltwirtschaft kommt in Schwung


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Weltwirtschaft kommt in Schwung

Die Weltwirtschaft kommt allmählich
wieder in Schwung
 

Erstmals seit fast zwei Jahren hat der Internationale Währungsfonds (IWF) seinen Ausblick für das weltweite Wirtschaftswachstum wieder leicht angehoben. Die deutsche Wirtschaft wächst in diesem Jahr nach Ansicht des IWF stärker als erwartet. Auch für die Eurozone und die US-Wirtschaft schauen die Experten positiver ins Jahr.

Der jüngsten IWF-Prognose zufolge nimmt die Weltwirtschaft wieder Fahrt auf. Für dieses Jahr rechnet die Organisation mit 3,7 Prozent weltweitem Wachstum. „Die Bremsen für die Erholung werden nach und nach gelöst“, sagte Blanchard. „Die Unsicherheit lässt nach.“

Die Erholung sei allerdings brüchig und das Risiko einer neuen Krise längst nicht gebannt. IWF-Chefin Christine Lagarde will am Donnerstag auf der Jahrestagung des Weltwirtschaftsforums (WEF) über die Herausforderungen der Weltwirtschaft sprechen. Bereits in der vergangenen Woche warnte sie vor zu großer Euphorie.


Die Weltbank hatte sich zuletzt ebenfalls zuversichtlich geäußert und ein leicht geringeres Plus von 3,2 Prozent für 2014 vorausgesagt. In den Folgejahren werde das Wachstum noch stärker zulegen, berechneten beide Organisationen. Der IWF geht von 3,9 Prozent für 2015 aus.

Auch für Deutschland fiel der IWF-Ausblick positiver aus als noch im Herbst. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) soll danach in diesem Jahr um 1,6 Prozent zulegen. Die Weltbank rechnet sogar mit satten 1,9 Prozent Wachstum.
 

Auch EU, USA und China mit Wachstum

Auch die anderen Industriestaaten kommen rund sechs Jahre nach Ausbruch der weltweiten Finanzkrise wieder in Schwung. Die Eurozone soll laut IWF dieses Jahr um 1,0 Prozent zulegen, 2015 werden 1,4 Prozent vorhergesehen.

Für die US-Wirtschaft geht es deutlich aufwärts, ihr sagt der Währungsfonds für 2014 ein Plus von 2,8 Prozent voraus. China muss laut IWF in diesem Jahr abermals nur mit 7,5 Prozent Wachstum rechnen, Indien und afrikanische Länder südlich der Sahara behielten ihre Rolle als Wachstumsmotoren.
 

Deflationsgefahren als mögliche Risiken

Bei aller Zuversicht warnte der IWF jedoch auch vor Risiken. Die Deflationsgefahren in der Eurozone und in Japan sollten nicht aus den Augen gelassen werden. Der IWF räumte aber ein, der Spielraum der Notenbanken für weitere Zinssenkungen sei nur noch gering. Konjunkturhilfen dürfen nicht überstürzt verringert werden. Das gelte auch in Hinblick auf Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländer. Sie müssten Zeit bekommen, sich auf den Kapitalabfluss einzustellen, wenn die Zinsen in den reicheren Staaten wieder stiegen.


 

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